China must tackle its bubble trouble
中国该是处理泡沫问题的时候了
China is experiencing another wave of inflation. From bottled water to bread, prices are surging. The statistics may not fully reflect the situation. Over the past decade, China has transformed from the lowest-priced economy in the world to one of the highest-priced. Nothing symbolises the transformation better than busy customs officials trying to stop travelling Chinese from hauling food items and toilet paper back across the border.
中国正面临另一轮通胀问题。从瓶装水到面包,物价在不断上涨。有关统计数据可能无法完全反映有关状况。在过去十年,中国由全球物价最低经济体转变为物价最高经济体之一。海关官员正试图阻止中国游客托运食品及厕纸入境这一繁忙景象是对中国经济体转变的最好证明。
From 1998 to 2003, China experienced deflation following a bout of inflation, driven by overcapacity and a labour surplus. China shifted into inflation in 2004 due to rising commodity prices and the end of the labour surplus.
从1998年至2003年,中国先经历了通货紧缩,随后又由于产能过剩及劳动力剩余而出现通货膨胀。由于商品价格上涨及劳动力不再剩余,中国於2004年陷入通货膨胀的局面。
But the inflation today is different.
但现今面临的通货膨胀有別于以往。
First, overcapacity is still a problem; in fact, it became worse after the 2008 crisis as China's attempt to stimulate the economy vastly increased capacity while a weak global economy kept demand weak. This is why the producer price index has experienced a long period of decline.
首先,产能过剩仍然是个问题;事实上,在2008年金融危机后问题变得越发严重,由于中国试图刺激经济导致产能大增,而萧条的全球经济大环境下需求疲弱。此为生产者物价指数之所以长期下降的原因。
Furthermore, commodity prices are now declining. But despite these reasons, prices are rising because local governments have developed an elaborate machinery to collect money between production and consumption.
另外,商品价格在不断下降。尽管如此,物价仍在不断上涨,因为当地政府已经建立完善机制在生产和消费环节征税。
China's inflation is largely a tax on the household sector to fund the government sector. The main purpose is to extend the investment cycle.
中国的通胀在极大程度上是从家居行业征税为政府部门筹资,主要目的为延长投资周期。
In the East Asian export and investment development model, the two go together. When exports slow due to weak demand or competition, investment must slow, too. Otherwise, there would be a big balance of payments deficit, leading to a financial crisis.
在东亚出口与投资发展模式中,二者并行齐进。当出口由于需求疲弱或竞争的关系而放缓时,投资也会放缓。否则将会存在巨大付款赤字结余,从而引发金融危机。
This was what South Korea faced in 1997. China's day of reckoning should have been in 2008. The global financial crisis exposed the weakness of credit-fuelled Western demand for Chinese goods. But, instead of slowing investment to match the slower exports, China accelerated investment with its stimulus to maintain the GDP growth rate.
这就是韩国在1997年面临的状况。中国在2008年也出现过类似的情况。全球金融危机导致以信贷为主的西方国家对中国产品的需求疲弱。但是,中国非但没有减缓投资以适应放缓的出口,反而加速投资刺激经济以期维持其GDP的增长速度。
Investment rose to about 50 per cent of gross domestic product, 10 percentage points higher than in 2008. Rising local government debt and inflation funded the investment surge. As the local government debt becomes difficult to increase, the funding burden is increasingly shifting to inflation. The latest bout of inflation should be understood in this context.
中国的投资已占到国内生产总值的近50%,较2008年高出10个百分点。不断增长的当地政府债务及通货膨胀为投资浪潮提供资金。由于当地政府难以举借新债,融资重担逐渐转向通胀。最近一轮的通胀可按此理解。
Japan and Korea saw their investment rise above 40 per cent of GDP briefly. China's investment has been above that level for over a decade. The simple maths is that a higher ratio for investment means a lower ratio for consumption. But the former leads to more capacity. With consumption held down, exports could absorb the capacity. But as the global economy remains sluggish, there is no demand other than investment itself to absorb the capacity. China's growth model has become a capacity bubble. To absorb excess capacity, China creates investment demand that leads to even more overcapacity.
日本和韩国的投资比例曾在短时间内超过国民生产总值的40%。中国投资所占比例超过该水平已有十余年。从简单的数学理论而言,投资比率越高,则消费比率越低。但前者可产生更多产能,在消费水平持续下降的情况下,出口可以吸收该等产能。但由于全球经济仍不景气,除投资本身吸收该等产能外,并无其他需求。中国的增长模式已成为一个产能泡沫。为吸收过剩产能,中国创造投资需求,从而导致更多过剩产能。
Bread costs more in China than in most places. But China's five-star hotels offer some of the lowest rates in the world. The contrast reflects China's growth model: taxing the household sector through inflation to fund investment. Necessities like foodstuffs and toilet paper can be taxed more than five-star hotels.
中国的面包比大多数国家都卖得贵。但中国部分五星级酒店提供全球最低价格的房间。此项对比反映中国的增长模式:通过通胀向家居行业征税为投资融资。食物及厕纸之类的必需品课税比五星级酒店更重。
China's inflation dynamic reflects the government's monopoly power in maximising prices. The money supply defines the limits of inflation. For example, China's money supply is rising at about 15 per cent this year. The real growth rate is, at best, half as much. The difference is probably absorbed by inflation.
中国的通胀动态反映出政府在制定价格方面的垄断权力。货币供应决定通胀的限度。例如,今年中国的货币供应上升近15%。真正的增长比率最多为一半。差额可能被通胀吸收。
Inflation, not growth, is the destabilising force in China. The current high rate of inflation could trigger a vicious wage-price spiral, as China is facing a labour shortage. The spiral would make the exchange rate policy unsustainable.
通胀并非增长率,是使中国最不稳定的因素。由于中国正面临劳动力短缺的问题,现下的高通胀比率将引发工资与物价严重的螺旋式上升。工资与物价的螺旋式上升将导致汇率政策的不稳定。
China's financial stability depends on expectations of a stable or rising renminbi against the dollar. If inflation leads to expectations of a devaluation, a financial collapse is likely. Hence, China has to slow growth of the money supply.
中国的财政稳定性依赖人民币兑美元的稳定或增长预期。若通胀导致货币贬值预期,财政则很可能会崩溃。因此。中国必须减缓货币供应的增长速度。
Japan experienced a price bubble two decades ago; South Korea and Southeast Asia, 15 years ago. The bubble deflated in Japan after a long period of deflation, while a "maxi-devaluation", a large reduction in the currency's value over a period of time, followed in Southeast Asia and Korea. China's adjustment would be similar to Japan's. The more inflation China has now, the more deflation later.
在二十年前,日本经历了一场价格泡沫;韩国及东南亚在十五年前也经历过价格泡沫。日本经济的泡沫在经历一段较长时间的通货紧缩后才破灭,随后东南亚和韩国迎来的是一段“长时间的货币贬值”,在一段时间内货币的价值出现大幅度缩减。中国的调整将与日本相似。中国当前的通货膨胀越高,日后通货紧缩越严重。
Local governments have been trying everything to raise financing to sustain existing investment projects. But, banks are pushing risky loans off their books to the shadow banking system. Local government funding costs are rising as a result. With rising interest rates, China's investment bubble will burst, probably in a matter of months, not years.
当地政府已尝尽各种筹资方法以维持现有的投资项目。然而,各大银行正将其账上的风险性贷款拨至影子银行系统。当地政府的融资费用因此上升。随着利率增长,中国的投资泡沫将会破灭,或许就是几个月的事,而不用再等几年。
If China sticks to a stable exchange rate policy, which I expect, prices will go down. China suffered high prices in the early 1990s. By sticking to a stable exchange rate policy, it took five years of deflation to make China cheap again. In this current period of inflation, prices are more out of line with international levels. The coming bout of deflation needs to be severe enough to correct the misalignment.
如果中国坚持稳定的汇率政策,我预期物价将会下降。中国在二十世纪九十年代初期曾经历物价高涨,但通过坚持稳定的汇率政策,经过五年的通货紧缩,中国物价恢复正常。在现下的通胀时期,物价水平已远超国际水平。要想扭转物价高企的现状,则将迎来一轮极其严重的通货紧缩。
Unlike Japan, China can expect another growth cycle. The current level of household consumption is one-tenth of the level in advanced economies. It is logical, therefore, for China to shift income away from government to households to support consumption, which would gradually absorb the overcapacity.
与日本不同的是,中国可迎来另一轮增长周期。中国当前的家居消费水平为发达国家的十分之一。因此,中国将政府收入转移至家居行业以支持消费是合理的,此举将会逐步吸收过剩的产能。
The collapse of the land bubble is a necessary part of the adjustment. It will decrease government revenue and increase the purchasing power of household income.
土地泡沫的破灭为调整的必要部分。土地泡沫破灭将会降低政府收入及增强家庭收入的购买力。
When the property bubble crashes in China, it will be a new beginning, not the end, of China's growth. The US experienced the 1930s before its rise to become the world's dominant economy. The same thing will probably happen to China.
中国房地产泡沫的破碎将会是中国增长的新开端,而非中国增长的结束。美国经历了二十世纪三十年代艰难时期后才成为全球主导经济体。同样事情也可能会发生在中国。